The latest public opinion research suggests an unexpected dynamic in the congressional contest to fill the seat of outgoing Republican U.S. Rep. Neal Dunn. A survey conducted by MDW Communications places Democrat Brice Barnes narrowly ahead of Republican Evan Power in a direct match-up, even as the sample leans more Republican than Democratic. The polling memo frames the initial margin as a statistical tie, but subsequent tests that present voters with more background material show Barnes widening her advantage.

This article unpacks the poll’s headline numbers, explores how different messages shift voter preferences, and outlines the broader electoral landscape, including who else remains in the running for both parties.

Head-to-head numbers and what they mean

When respondents were asked to choose between Brice Barnes and Evan Power with no additional context, Barnes registered nearly 30% support to Power’s just under 29%. The pollster emphasized that this difference falls inside the survey’s margin of error, so the initial result is best read as a statistical tie. Yet the topline obscures several important patterns revealed by further questioning.

Crucially, the sample of 758 likely voters is not evenly split by party. The respondents were 47% Republican, 37% Democrat and 16% with no party affiliation (NPA). The memo points out that this composition creates a partisan skew: with nearly half the sample registered as Republicans, conditions are not naturally favorable to a Democratic challenger. Against that backdrop, any Democratic competitiveness signals erosion in typical party consolidation.

What the numbers imply about party loyalty

The poll shows uneven levels of party consolidation. Roughly 63% of Democrats initially indicated support for Barnes, while less than 53% of Republicans initially said they would back Power. That gap indicates early vulnerability in Power’s base, given his position as the state party chair. When voters were given more detailed, balanced biographies, Republican support for Power increased to above 61%, while Democratic support for Barnes rose dramatically to about 80%.

How information changes voter choices

MDW Communications ran two additional experiments: one providing positive biographies for both candidates and another supplying negative background. After favorable bios, Barnes’s support climbed to almost 43% versus Power’s near 35%. When both candidates received negative information, both saw declines, but Barnes maintained an edge — roughly 41% to Power’s just above 33% — leaving a sizable undecided bloc at over 26%.

These shifts show that messaging matters and that voters without firm partisan attachments can be moved by candidate portrayals. Among NPAs, Barnes started with a modest advantage — about 23% to 19% — that widened substantially with more context into roughly a 40% to 22% lead, indicating persuasion potential among independents.

Undecided voters and electoral implications

The poll leaves more than a quarter of respondents undecided after extended questioning, which is a critical pivot point in any close race. That undecided group, combined with GOP defections and higher-than-expected Democratic cohesion when voters are informed, composes the path by which Barnes could flip the district. The memo interprets Barnes’s standing as contingent on both a failure of Republicans to consolidate around Power and successful outreach to NPAs and moderate voters.

Who else is in the field

Neither Barnes nor Power has locked up a nomination. On the Democratic side, Barnes competes with three other declared contenders: Yen Bailey, Amanda Green and Nic Zateslo. The presence of multiple Democrats could influence primary dynamics and general election calculations, including how resources and endorsements divide.

Power is one of several Republicans seeking to succeed Dunn. His GOP challengers include former Senate hopeful Keith Gross, disabled veteran Luke Murphy, Gulf County Schools Superintendent Jim Norton, former Senate counsel Austin Rogers and retired law enforcement officer Audie Rowell. The crowded Republican primary raises questions about intra-party unity and whether Power’s role within the state party helps or hurts his ability to consolidate conservative voters.

What to watch next

Future milestones to monitor are how primary contests narrow the fields, whether either party coalesces around a single message, and how campaign advertisements shape perceptions of experience and vulnerability. The high undecided percentage signals that voter education and turnout efforts will be decisive. Observers should also track whether subsequent polling continues to show the same patterns when different research firms and methodologies are used.

In sum, while the initial margin sits inside the margin of error, tests that place voters in an informed setting show Brice Barnes with a durable edge. Whether that advantage survives the real-world pressures of a primary fight, general election campaigning and shifting national moods will determine if a Republican-held seat can turn blue.