The economic landscape in the United States has become a central focus for voters as the midterm elections draw near. A recent national survey by Rasmussen Reports reveals a significant shift in public perception regarding the country’s economic health and political direction.

As economic indicators continue to influence voter behavior, both major parties are grappling with how to address these concerns and win public trust.

The state of economic perception

According to the survey, a majority of likely voters (58%) believe the economy has deteriorated over the past year. Only 17% perceive an improvement, while 21% see the situation as unchanged. This pessimism extends to the country’s overall trajectory, with just 36% of respondents feeling the nation is on the right path, compared to 58% who feel it is veering off course.

This represents a notable decline from a year ago, when 48% expressed optimism about the country’s direction, compared to 46% who were pessimistic. The data suggests a growing sense of unease among the electorate.

Party trust and economic issues

When it comes to handling the economy, voters are nearly evenly split in their trust of the two major parties. 43% favor Democrats, while 42% trust Republicans more. However, this represents a shift from January, when Republicans held a narrow two-point advantage. The remaining 15% of voters are undecided, indicating a significant portion of the electorate is still weighing its options.

The survey also highlights stark partisan divisions. 83% of Democrats trust their party more on economic issues, while 80% of Republicans express greater confidence in the GOP. Among unaffiliated voters, opinions are more dispersed, with 36% favoring Republicans, 32% Democrats, and 32% uncertain.

Economic concerns across demographics

Economic concerns transcend party lines, with 56% of Democrats, 54% of Republicans, and 48% of unaffiliated voters identifying the economy as the most important issue in their congressional vote. The data also reveals notable differences among demographic groups.

For instance, 63% of women voters believe the economy has worsened, compared to 53% of men. Women tend to trust Democrats more on economic issues by a 47% to 37% margin, while men favor Republicans 48% to 39%. Racial and ethnic groups also show varying levels of trust, with 61% of Black voters and 42% of white voters expressing greater confidence in Democrats, while 45% of white voters and 42% of Hispanic voters prefer Republicans.

The economy and the midterm elections

The economy is emerging as a key issue in the upcoming midterm elections, with 53% of likely voters stating it will be the most important factor in their decision. This sentiment is particularly strong among voters in their 40s, who are most likely to prioritize economic concerns. Meanwhile, voters aged 50 to 64 show the highest level of trust in Republicans to manage the economy.

Income levels also play a role in shaping voter attitudes. Those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 annually are most likely to consider the economy the top issue, while higher-income earners ($200,000+) tend to trust Democrats more on economic matters.

Presidential voters and economic views

The survey also sheds light on the economic perspectives of 2026 presidential voters. Among those who voted for Kamala Harris, a staggering 86% believe the economy has worsened. In contrast, only 29% of Donald Trump voters share this view, highlighting a significant divide in economic perception based on presidential preference.

These findings come at a time when President Trump’s approval ratings are showing signs of decline. According to Rasmussen Reports, Trump’s job approval rating dropped to 43% in May, down from the previous month, while disapproval rose to 56%. Additionally, approval for the Iran war has decreased by 12 points in less than three months, despite majority support for reported peace agreement terms.

Looking ahead

As the midterm elections approach, the economic landscape will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping voter behavior and party strategies. With a significant portion of the electorate expressing dissatisfaction with the current economic situation, both parties will need to address these concerns effectively to garner public support.

The coming months will be crucial in determining how these economic perceptions translate into voting patterns and ultimately influence the outcome of the midterm elections.