The race for Florida’s next governor is heating up, with U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds maintaining a significant lead in the Republican primary. However, a recent statewide survey reveals that the electorate is still largely undecided, creating an opportunity for challengers like Paul Renner to make a late surge.

The survey, conducted by Political Matrix and The Listener Grouppolled 973 registered Republican likely primary voters and found that Donalds is currently the front-runner with 29% support. Despite this lead, nearly half of the voters remain undecided, indicating a fluid and dynamic race.

Donalds’ Lead and Renner’s Momentum

Byron Donalds has been bolstered by a relentless barrage of TV ads and a high-profile endorsement from former President Donald Trump. His campaign has also benefited from a strong fundraising effort, raising approximately $81 million by May. However, his lead is not insurmountable, and there is ample room for a challenger to close the gap.

Paul Rennerthe former House Speaker, is solidly in second place with 14% support. His record as a Navy veteran, former prosecutor, and key architect of Governor Ron DeSantis‘s conservative agenda resonates powerfully with voters. Greg Fink, Principal of Palafox Productions and Promotions, Inc.noted that Renner is the candidate best positioned to challenge Donalds.

Key Findings from the Survey

The survey revealed several key insights into the current state of the race:

  • The Republican primary for governor remains highly fluid, with 49% of voters undecided even when forced to choose among the leading candidates.
  • Byron Donalds is leading in the crucial SW Florida region.
  • Paul Renner is performing well in his home turf of NE Florida and the Panhandle.
  • Jay CollinsPaul Rennerand Byron Donalds are closely clustered in the Tampa Bay market, with Donalds holding a slight edge.
  • James Fishback is currently polling below the margin of error and is virtually unknown to Republican voters.

The survey also highlighted the continued influence of endorsements from prominent figures. An endorsement from Governor Ron DeSantis would make 62% of voters more likely to support his chosen candidate, while an endorsement from President Donald Trump would make 65% more likely to support his chosen candidate.

The Impact of Endorsements and Late Campaign Surges

Greg Fink emphasized the significance of endorsements and the potential for late campaign surges. “President Trump remains one of the biggest factors in primary politics,” Fink stated. “However, candidates who can clearly communicate their record of service and conservative results have a real shot to be competitive. Florida is a state with a very late primary, and there are countless examples of significant movement in the last 5 to 6 weeks before the election.”

The survey was conducted using live telephone interviews among registered Republican likely primary voters, with a margin of error of ±3.14% at the 95% confidence level.

As the race continues to evolve, all eyes will be on the remaining candidates to see if they can capitalize on the undecided voters and make a late charge in the final weeks leading up to the primary election on August 18.