The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun with the development of Potential Tropical Cyclone Onecurrently located about 55 miles southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas. This system, previously designated as Invest 90Lis moving northeast at a speed of 6 mph and is expected to gradually strengthen as it moves back over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
As of 100 PM CDT on Tuesday, June 16th, the disturbance was centered near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 97.8 West. The system is anticipated to move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, then move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday, and finally move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Potential Impacts and Hazards
The primary threats associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One include heavy rainfall, storm surge, and the potential for tornadoes. The system is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated higher totals around 12 inches, through Thursday. This heavy rain could lead to dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding in areas from the mid to upper Texas coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the area from Sargent, Texasto Morgan City, Louisianawhere tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 24 to 36 hours. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide could cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach heights of 2 to 4 feet above ground in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.
Storm Surge and Surf Conditions
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. Additionally, swells generated by the potential tropical cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Tornado Threat
A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should remain vigilant and monitor local weather updates for the latest information.
Understanding Potential Tropical Cyclones
A Potential Tropical Cyclone is a designation used by the National Hurricane Center for systems that have not yet become tropical depressions or tropical storms but are expected to do so soon. This designation allows forecasters to issue watches and warnings ahead of time when a developing system is expected to bring tropical storm or hurricane impacts to land within 48 hours. In other words, a Potential Tropical Cyclone may not have earned an official name yet, but it can still produce dangerous weather, including flooding rain, storm surge, gusty winds, tornadoes, and rough surf.
As of now, the maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
Residents in the affected areas should stay informed and follow the advice of local authorities to ensure their safety. For the most up-to-date information, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.