Russia, a global energy powerhouse, is grappling with an unprecedented fuel crisis. Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries and infrastructure have disrupted supplies, leading to long queues at gas stations and widespread frustration among motorists and businesses. The crisis, now in its fifth year, has brought the realities of war home to ordinary Russians, drawing a rare admission from President Vladimir Putin.
The situation has escalated significantly since late March, with over 50 reported attacks on oil refineries, depots, and terminals. The strikes have targeted key facilities, including the refinery in Tuapse, which was hit four times in just over two weeks. As a result, Russia’s crude oil processing in June dropped by 25%, reaching the lowest level in over two decades.
Impact on Fuel Production and Supply
Gary Peach, an oil markets analyst at Energy Intelligence, described the outages as “extraordinary.” Gasoline production has fallen by 17%, from 1.03 million barrels a day to 850,000 barrels a day, far short of domestic market needs. About one third of Russia’s oil refining capacity is currently offline, according to Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd. Consultancy.
The crisis has reached distant regions, including Siberia, where no refineries have been directly hit. Viktor Shkurenko, a business owner in the Omsk region, expressed surprise at the sudden limits on gasoline sales. “Nothing was bombed here,” he noted, highlighting the widespread impact of the shortages.
Ukraine’s Strategic Campaign
Ukrainian officials describe the strikes as part of a campaign to pressure Moscow to end the war. The attacks aim to undermine Russia’s military logistics and supply lines, weakening its ability to mount assaults along the front. In particular, Kyiv has sought to isolate Crimea, which was seized from Ukraine in 2014. Attacks earlier this year forced the Moscow-installed authorities to enact fuel rationing on the peninsula in May and halt sales to civilians there altogether several weeks later.
The strikes have also targeted major cities, embarrassing the Kremlin with images of black plumes of smoke circulating widely online. A June 3 attack on an oil terminal in St. Petersburg darkened the sky as Putin prepared to host his annual economic forum. On June 18, a similar cloud rose from the Moscow Oil Refinery, sending greasy black droplets raining down.
Government Response and Future Outlook
Putin acknowledged the “problems persist for both motorists and businesses,” insisting the shortages are “not critical” and “temporary.” However, the situation on the ground tells a different story. Motorists in Moscow, typically better-insulated from economic shocks, expressed frustration with the long queues and rising prices. “They say one thing on television, and in reality it’s another,” one motorist told The Associated Press.
Repairing the war-damaged refineries is complicated. Ukraine’s attacks damaged specialized equipment often sourced abroad, making repairs time-consuming and expensive. Some refineries won’t be worth repairing until there’s a ceasefire or armistice, according to Peach. Fixing the Moscow Oil Refinery, which supplied 40% of the fuel to the capital and the surrounding region, is expected to take at least three months.
If there’s no further damage to Russia’s oil infrastructure, the shortages are likely to last “probably throughout the summer,” according to Weafer. The crisis highlights the strategic impact of Ukraine’s campaign and the challenges Russia faces in maintaining its energy dominance amid ongoing conflict.
