The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is closely monitoring two tropical disturbances that could potentially impact the United States. One disturbance is located in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, while the other has formed off the coast of Africa. Both systems have varying chances of development, and their potential impacts are being closely watched by meteorologists.
In the northeastern Gulf, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop and move northeast between Saturday and next Wednesday. This system has a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days, although the odds remain at 0% for the next two days. Regardless of whether it organizes, the system is expected to bring tropical downpours and increased moisture across Florida and parts of the Southeast. The low pressure area is forming in an area where water temperatures are warm, ranging from the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
Gulf Disturbance Details
The Gulf disturbance is moving northeast and is expected to bring heavy rain and flooding risks to Florida starting Saturday. Meteorologist Jim Weber from FOX 13 Tampa Bay notes that this system will likely move across the upper part of the state and enter the North Carolina coastline. He added that it will increase rain chances over the weekend.
Officials cannot yet confirm if the disturbance will overcome environmental hurdles like land interaction, wind shear, and dry air. Forecasters do not know how close the system will get to Florida before it attempts to organize, which is a major factor in its development. To become a tropical system, it must develop a defined circulation with organized thunderstorms. If it reaches maximum sustained winds of 39 mph, it will become a tropical storm and be named Bertha.
Atlantic Disturbance Details
A tropical wave off the Cabo Verde Islands has become better organized over the last 24 hours. It is moving west-northwest and, according to the NHC, there is a chance for slow development over the next several days. The NHC is giving it a 10% chance of developing over the next week. However, meteorologists say it is moving into an area that is not conducive for additional development by the weekend.
The Atlantic disturbance is being monitored for potential impacts on the Southeast Coastline. As of Wednesday night, the NHC is giving this area a 10% chance of development over the next five days. Saharan dust and wind shear may tear the system apart as it moves westward into the open waters of the Atlantic.
Tropical Trends for Mid-July
Heading into mid-to-late July, tropical development is usually fairly quiet. However, each storm is affected by the present state of the atmosphere and ocean. The NHC will continue to watch both areas of concern, but as of now, only one zone warrants attention for those in Eastern North Carolina.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to stay informed and prepared. Downloading weather apps and keeping an eye on official advisories can provide the latest updates and real-time tracking of these storms.