The Gulf Coast is on high alert as Tropical Depression Two is forecast to intensify into Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday. This storm poses a significant threat of heavy rainfall and flooding from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana and Texas.
The National Hurricane Center issued its initial advisory on Tropical Depression Two late Sunday morning. The system is currently centered south of Panama City, Florida, and will be named Bertha once its winds reach 40 mph.
Current Alerts and Warnings
The map below illustrates the areas under tropical storm watches and warnings. These alerts indicate that tropical storm conditions are either possible (watch) or expected (warning).
As of now, the system is quite broad, with showers spreading far from its center, affecting areas from parts of Florida to Louisiana.
Projected Path and Strength
Tropical Depression Two is expected to move slowly through Monday before beginning a west or west-northwest track starting Tuesday. The exact path remains uncertain, but it could approach the Louisiana coast by Wednesday or Thursday, potentially moving into Texas afterward.
The storm’s intensity will depend on its ability to overcome wind shear and dry air. Despite these challenges, it is expected to become Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday. The storm’s strength will also be influenced by its track. If Bertha’s center encounters land, it will weaken as it loses its energy source from the Gulf. Conversely, if it remains over the warm Gulf waters, it could intensify, feeding off the mid-upper 80s degree temperatures until its final landfall.
Potential Impacts
All interests along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas should closely monitor this forecast for any changes. Now is an opportune time to ensure preparedness for hurricane season, well before any storms threaten.
Locally heavy rain is anticipated with Bertha, with some areas potentially receiving up to 8 inches of rain. This could trigger local flash flooding, particularly in urban areas. The exact rainfall amounts will depend on the storm’s track, which remains uncertain at this early stage.
In addition to heavy rain, coastal flooding and storm surge, especially at high tide, can be expected as Bertha organizes and gains strength along parts of the northern Gulf Coast. This will also result in dangerous rip currents, making it advisable to stay out of the water at Gulf Coast beaches this week, even if the weather appears favorable. A few tropical tornadoes or waterspouts are also possible along the northern Gulf Coast.
AccuWeather meteorologists have designated this entity as a tropical rainstorm to raise awareness of the growing flooding risk across portions of the Gulf Coast. By Sunday morning, the rainstorm had better organized over the eastern Gulf, becoming Tropical Depression Two.
Further strengthening is expected, reaching tropical storm strength by Monday. The next name on the list is Bertha. For the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to declare a tropical storm has formed and assign a name, the entity must have a defined circulation with maximum sustained winds of 39 miles per hour or greater.
“Heavy rain looks to be the biggest threat from Tropical Depression Two,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex Duffus said. A broad swath of 1-4 inches of rain is forecast from southwestern Florida into southern Georgia, extending to southern Louisiana and central and southern Texas. Even higher amounts of 4-8 inches of rainfall could accumulate across portions of the Big Bend in Florida and southeastern Louisiana with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches.
“While rainfall will be welcome across portions of the Florida Panhandle due to an ongoing drought, the flooding risk can be increased due to dry soil. This dry, hard soil can allow the water to run off instead of being absorbed right away,” AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva said.
If heavy rain shifts farther west into the Texas Hill Country, there will be an elevated concern for flash flooding given the terrain and recent significant flooding that occurred across the region.
Along with the risk of flooding, the tropical depression will generate wind gusts up to 60 mph from the western Panhandle of Florida into southeastern Texas. The depression could also generate 1-3 feet of storm surge from the Big Bend of Florida to far eastern Louisiana.
“There will also be an increased risk of dangerous rip currents and waterspouts along portions of the northeastern Gulf Coast,” Duffus said.
AccuWeather first highlighted a low risk for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf on July 13. The depression’s development marked the end of a lengthy lull in Atlantic tropical activity since Tropical Storm Arthur in mid-June.
Elsewhere in the basin, there is a low risk for tropical development south of Bermuda from July 22-24. AccuWeather’s team of tropical experts continues to forecast between eight and fourteen named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which is below the historical average due to El Niño.