The political landscape in Florida is undergoing a notable shift, with President Donald Trump’s approval rating taking a significant dive. This change could have far-reaching implications for the upcoming Senate race, where incumbent Senator Ashley Moody faces a challenge from Democratic candidate Alex Vindman.
The latest data from Global Strategy Group (GSG) reveals a stark contrast to earlier figures. In January, Trump enjoyed a net positive rating, but by June 2026, the tide has turned. Now, 52% of Florida voters view him unfavorably, while only 46% hold a positive opinion of him. This marks a ten-point swing moving from a +4 to a -6 net approval in the state.
Trump’s Declining Popularity Among Key Demographics
The decline in Trump’s popularity is not limited to a specific group. The shift is evident across various demographics, including his own base. Support among White college-aged voters has dropped by 15 points since January. Even among registered Republicans, there has been a net 10-point decline in approval. Perhaps most telling, among self-identified Trump 2026 voters, his numbers are down by 10 points as well.
This erosion of support could spell trouble for Senator Ashley Moody, who is seeking re-election in November. The trend is not isolated to Florida; GSG’s findings indicate that Trump’s approval rating is underwater in other key states as well. In Ohio, he sits at 41% approval and 53% disapproval, while in Texas, the numbers are 41% to 54%. These figures suggest a broader national sentiment that could impact the political landscape.
The Potential Impact on the 2026 Senate Race
The political environment in Florida is becoming increasingly favorable for Democrats, despite the state’s historically partisan dynamics. A polling memo from GSG notes that the double-digit decline in Trump’s popularity has created a more favorable political environment for Democrats in 2026. This shift could make Florida a competitive state once again, a scenario that has not been seen in recent years.
For context, in 2018—the last midterm during Trump’s presidency—exit polls showed that while Trump was unpopular nationally, he still held a positive rating in Florida. That year, Republican Rick Scott managed to unseat Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, helping Republicans gain ground in the Senate even as they lost the House. However, this time, Trump’s unpopularity appears to have caught up with him in Florida as well.
The same pollster that highlighted Trump’s declining approval also noted that Senator Ashley Moody holds just a 46% to 43% lead over Alex Vindman, a margin that falls within the poll’s 3.1% margin of error. This close race underscores the potential impact of Trump’s declining popularity on the Senate race in Florida.
Looking Ahead: What This Means for Florida and Beyond
The political landscape in Florida is evolving, and the decline in Trump’s approval rating is a significant factor. As the state becomes more competitive for Democrats, the upcoming Senate race could be a bellwether for the broader political environment. The shift in sentiment among key demographics, including Trump’s own base, suggests that the political winds are changing.
For Senator Ashley Moody, the challenge will be to navigate this shifting landscape and maintain her lead despite the headwinds. For Alex Vindman, the declining popularity of President trump presents an opportunity to make the case that Florida is once again in play. As the November elections approach, all eyes will be on Florida to see how these dynamics play out.
